Equities Market
Equities’ prices shed 3.8% on average by close of November 2025 after the heavy gains recorded in the month, right before the sell offs began to cash in the capital gains. This is after the market prices hit a 5-year high as reflected by the all share index which hit 192.89 points emanating from a stellar Q3-2025 financial results and a better full year 2025 expectations. Further, the ongoing rate cuts continue to draw investments to equities which has seen other counters record upticks as the respective companies take advantage of the low cost of financing.
NSE 25 lost 3.6% followed by NSE 10 at 3.2% and NSE 20 with 2.1% losses while Banks climbed 26.2% on an index review that happened early in the month coupled with a better earnings and full year performance outlook.
Value traded expanded 25.8% m-m from KES 11.27Bn to KES 14.18Bn supported by increased market activity from 466.56Mn to 491.83Mn shares. The rise in volumes also emanated from cashing in of gains, mostly the banking sector whose prices started reversing down after hitting their over 5-year highs. This recorded improved activities and focus in the banking sector counters.
Foreign activity edged down from 36.0% in October 2025 to 31.2% in November 2025 with a spike in net foreign outflows from KES 1.31Bn to KES 2.70Bn on heavy foreign exits from the top Banks, telecommunication and the manufacturing sectors.
Investors’ focus remained in the Banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors which moved KES 5.98Bn, KES 5.01Bn and 1.89Bn or 42.0%, 35.2% and 12.6% of the market value traded respectively. Cumulatively, the three sectors accounted for 89.8% and 61.1% of the market turnover and volumes traded.
Safaricom retained the top mover position with KES 5.01Bn turnover after trading 170.26Mn shares in relation to KES 239.86Mn shares of KES 6.87Bn traded in October 2025. The telco’s price shed 2.7% m-m from KES 29.55 to KES 28.75 per share on heavy foreign outflows to record the highest net foreign outflows of KES 1,171.42Mn in the month.
During the month, Safaricom posted a 63.1% jump in profits before tax (PBT) to KES 55.24Bn in HY-2026 compared to KES 33.86Bn reported in HY-2025. Safaricom Ethiopia loss before tax dropped 23.1% year on year (Y-Y) to KES 28.87Bn in HY-2026 from that of KES 37.53Bn in HY-2025 signaling a steady growth towards the scheduled break even in FY-2027.
The telco remains among the most promising counters supported by the above break-even projections and Safaricom Kenya performances which saw PBT jump 17.9% up from KES 71.34Bn to KES 84.14Bn riding on payment and mobile data solutions.
KCB Group took second mover position with KES 2.00Bn after trading 30.98Mn shares whose price declined 3.3% from KES 60.75 to KES 58.75 per share. The largest Bank by assets saw its price hit over a decade high of KES 70.00 just before its Q3-2025 financials.
On its Q3-2025 financials, KCB Group posted an 8.1% rise in PBT to KES 62.08Bn from that of KES 57.43Bn reported in Q3-2024. The performance was driven by low cost of financing its interest earning assets and marginal growths in the overall interest income as lending kicks up after the rate cuts.
Equity Group took third mover position with KES 1.61Bn from 24.40Mn shares whose price shrunk 1.2% from KES 63.50 to KES 62.75 per share after hitting a high of KES 69.75 between 5th and 7th of November 2025. Year on year, Equity’s price was up 39.4%.
Co-op Bank closed the top five movers’ list with KES 655.21Mn from 27.30Mn shares whose price escalated 9.0% from KES 21.00 in October to KES 22.90 per share by end of November 2025. Year on year, the Group’s price was up 65.9% while recording a high of KES 25.00 in mid-November 2025.
[Graph in PDF]
Primary Bonds Market Performance
Primary bonds auctions were oversubscribed with the first auction receiving KES 92.91Bn or 232.3% of the target with the government accepting KES 52.83Bn or 56.9% of the subscribed amount to account for a 132.1% performance.
The second auction on 19th November 2025 saw KES 115.86Bn subscribed while KES 54.76Bn being accepted against a similar government target of KES 40.00Bn.
The oversubscriptions were also supported by coupon payouts of KES 80.28Bn paid in the month plus other overflows especially from insurances, pension funds and banks. The oversubscriptions were further bolstered by a generally improved market liquidity.
The buyback auction for FXD1/2023/003 maturing on 11th May 2026, saw a total of KES 20.08Bn injected back into the market out of the total of KES 34.30Bn subscribed.
[Graph in PDF]
Secondary Bonds Trading Performance
Secondary bonds market traded a total of KES 193.29Bin in November, a 13.8% higher from that of KES 169.92Bn traded in October. Market attention remained on normal fixed rate bonds after being the most re-opened papers in the primary.
The FXD1/2022/25, re-opened five times in 2025 (re-opened the most in 2025) emerged as the top traded paper as investors cashed in while its yield to maturity declined 58.8bps from 12.9250% to 12.5133%.
In December 2025 we expect a slight drop in the secondary trading as many investors stay off the market and dive into the holiday season projecting for 2026.
[Graph in PDF]
Yield Curve
The yield curve exhibited mixed movements influenced by the close auctions announced in the last week of November.
The short-end of the yield curve shifted upwards on impact from an improved liquidity and issuance of two short-term papers issued in November. This is even as the short-end rates appear to have hit the bottom as reflected by the marginal declines in the 1-year paper.
The middle curve shifted downwards all the way from the 7-year paper to the 19th year papers largely on impacts from November’s re-opened papers (FXD1/2012/020-7.0yrs, FXD1/2022/015-11.4yrs, FXD3/2019/015-8.7yrs, FXD1/2021/025. The long-end of 21-years and 22-years shifted up on impact from the FXD1/2021/25 auction. This was further elevated by the December papers announced in the last week of November.
[Graph in PDF]
Monetary Policy & Inflation
November inflation dropped marginally from 4.6% in Oct-2025 to 4.5% in November 2025 supported by low food prices especially maize. Sifted maize flour price dropped 3.2% from KES 148.79 in October 2025 to KES 143.96 per 2Kg packet.
Pump prices however stabilized at KES 185.89, KES 172.64 and KES 155.96 in both October and November 2025.
The rate cut transmission continues to take effect evidenced by a rising private sector credit which grew by 5% as of September 2025. We forecast an additional 25.0bps rate cut on the official base lending rate from 9.25% to 9.0% to push for economic growth through affordable credit.
[Graph in PDF]
Interbank
Interbank rate continues to track the Central Bank rate, to trade at 9.2475% as of the last trading day of November in relation to 9.2430% traded on the last trading day of October.
This was as liquidity demand edged down towards the end of November 2025 greatly supported by the above payouts including the buyback payouts. As such, Bank excess reserves dropped by over half from KES 17.20Bn to KES 7.60Bn.
We expect the interbank to edge downwards on the forecasted rate cut of about 25.0bps from 9.25% to 9.00%.
[Graph in PDF]
Treasury Bills
A total of KES 138.07Bn was subscribed with the government accepting KES 137.92Bn, to represent a 143.7% performance against a target of KES 96.00Bn for the month.
Market focus was on the 364-day paper which contributed 64.3% or KES 88.73Bn out of the total accepted amounts in what is viewed to be its relatively higher returns of 9.3739%.
Returns on investments across the three papers dropped marginally month on month with the 182-day paper shedding 6.5bps followed by the 91-day at 4.9bps and the 364-day at 3.2bps to 7.8000%, 7.7789% and 9.3759%, respectively.
[Graph in PDF]
Currency
The shilling lost 0.4% against the US dollar after over a year of trading at a daily average of around KES 129.24 per US dollar. The weakening of the shilling emanated from high dollar demand towards imports and pressure from a rising external debt obligation.
Forex reserves shed 2.0% m-m from USD 12.19Bn to USD 11.95Bn sufficient for 5.2-months of import cover. The decline follows coupon payouts for the May 2032 paper of USD 1.20Bn.
Forex remittances were 4.6% up to USD 437.20Mn in October 2025 from USD 419.63Mn in September 2025. This saw the ten-months remittances up 3.3% from USD 4.07Bn to USD 4.21Bn with 58.2% or USD 2.45Bn coming from the USA.
[Graph in PDF]
Exchequer Performance
Revenue estimates for the first four months of 2025 hit KES 1,513.11Bn, a 102.4% performance against a four-month target of KES 1,477.86Bn.
Tax contributed KES 736.28Bn 0r 48.7% of the revenue followed closely by borrowings with KES 730.25Bn or 48.3% of the target revenue for the period. Tax and borrowings contributed 96.9% of the total revenue collected.
Domestic borrowing surpassed the four-month target at 140.4% or KES 513.84Bn as external borrowings also exceeded target at 113.9% or KES 216.40Bn.
[Graph in PDF]
Public Debt
Provisional statistics from the Central Bank of Kenya points Kenya’s debt at KES 11.97 trillion as at end of August 2025, reflecting an 11.5% surge from that of KES 10.73Tr reported in a similar period in 2024.
Domestic debt rose faster at 18.1% year on year from KES 5.56Tr to KES 6.56Tr while external debt rose at 4.4% from KES 5.18Tr to KES 5.40Tr by end of August 2025.
