Equities Market
The stock market posted a 1.9% rise in prices in the second last week of October 2025 as measured by the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI). The NSE 25 index gained the most at 2.4%, followed by NSE 20 and NSE 10 which rose by 1.90% and 2.12%, respectively. The banking stocks prices edged down 2.3% on average.
Weekly market turnover jumped 176.3% to record a value of KES 4,189.14Mn, largely supported by a 81.55% increase in volume traded, from 74.01 Mn the previous week to 134.37Mn shares.
Foreign participation rose to 44.3% from 25.9% the week before accompanied by a rise in net foreign outflows from KES 85.26Mn to KES 1,639.44Mn. Heavy foreign exits happened on Safaricom and Equity Group while KCB and EABL experienced notable foreign inflows.
Sector-wise, market activity concentrated on the telecommunication, banking and the manufacturing sectors which accounted for 93.0% of the markets total turnover. Moreover, the same sectors had the largest volume traded which accounted for 76.0% of the total shares traded during the week.
Safaricom retained the top mover for the 4th consecutive week posting a turnover of KES 2,028.93 Mn after changing hands 72.01Mn shares in the week. The telco’s share price rose by 1.3% from KES 27.95 to KES 28.30, an increase in trade volumes further cemented its lead position.
Equity Group secured the second mover position of the week with a turnover of KES 629.73Mn with 10.51 Mn shares changing hands this week.
EABL took third mover position with KES 285.08Mn after changing hands 1.31Mn shares.
The week’s top gainers were Olympia Capital from the investment sector with a 21.8% improvement in its price followed by a 9.4 % improvement in KenGen’s counter price and lastly NCBA Group’s share price moved from KES83.25 to KES 91.00 which was a 9.3% improvement.
[Graph in PDF]
Bonds Market
Secondary bonds market recorded a significant improvement of 80.40% week on week (w-w) with turnovers spiking from KES 30.21Bn to KES 54.50Bn as the number of deals improved by 29.22%.
The rise in activity and value traded was occasioned by the entry of the October primary papers into the secondary market which rallied the market. The FXD/2021/20Yr had the highest value traded at 20.734Bn as investors cashed in while its yield to maturity moved from 13.5285% accepted in the primary to close the week at 13.2850%.
The Central Bank of Kenya re-opened two papers for November’s primary auction, FXD1/2012/020 (7.0-years, 12.000% coupon) and FXD1/2022/015 (11.4-years, 13.942% coupon). CBK also announced a Buyback offer for FXD1/2023/003 (6.7-Months – maturing on 11th May 2026).
[Graph in PDF]
Yield Curve
The yield curve generally shifted down in the week influenced by the on the run papers of October that fully entered the secondary trading.
The short-end all the way to the middle curve shifted down faster on October’s auction papers, FXD1/2018/015 (7.7-yrs) and FXD1/2021/020 (15.9-yrs). A wider downward shifts happened on the 12-, 13-, 14- and 15-years papers at 29.3bps, 30.1bps, 27.4bps and 27.6bps respectively. This was followed by down shifts on 7-year papers and the two papers around it.
In the coming week, we expect the downward trend to continue on the medium to the long-term papers as investors who obtained the primary papers continue to cash in by selling the papers to those who missed the papers in the primary.
[Graph in PDF]
Interbank
Interbank rate stabilized marginally up at 3.2bps from 9.23% to 9.26% in the week influenced by a rise in liquidity demand. Average interbank was nearly flat at 9.25% compared to an average of 9.24% the week before.
Liquidity demand accelerated up 129.5% from KES 5.25Bn to KES 12.05Bn to push the average demand 36.7% up to KES 10.90Bn.
Bank excess reserves doubled up from KES 3.80Bn to KES 7.80Bn, supported by overflows from KES 28.26Bn and KES 20.50Bn T-Bills and T-Bonds maturities that happened in the week after re-investments.
[Graph in PDF]
Treasury Bills
Weekly treasury bills auction remained oversubscribed at 105.9% or KES 25.41Bn with the government accepting KES 25.38B to account for a 105.8% performance against target.
The market witnessed a drastic shift to the 91-day paper which was oversubscribed at 325.0% or KES 13.00Bn of which KES 12.99Bn was accepted representing a 324.7% performance, unlike that of the week before. The other two papers were undersubscribed on what appears to be a tactical investment strategy.
Return on investments across the three papers further narrowed down at 3.0bps, 4.4bps and 1.8bps to 7.829%, to 7.865% and to 9.3467% for the 91, 182 and 364-day papers, respectively.
The performance was supported by the KES 26Bn T-bill maturities. We further expect oversubscriptions to be supported by KES 45.59Bn maturities, most of which will be re-invested back.
[Graph in PDF]
Currency
The shilling remained quite stable in the week, trading at an average of KES 129.24 per US dollar. Week on week the shilling was largely stable against the US dollar while strengthening against the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen at 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively.
Year to date, the shilling has gained marginally at 0.1% against the US dollar despite the rising forex reserves which seem to be countered by high external public debt obligations.
Forex reserves hit a new high of USD 12,080Mn, sufficient for 5.3-months of import cover against a 4.0-month target. The exchange buffers remain supported by receipts from the recent Eurobond surplus, diaspora remittances and receipts from agricultural exports.
