Equities Market
Stock price registered a 2.2 % improvement at the close of the third week of October as measured by the Nairobi All Shares Index (NASI). NSE 25 counters recorded the most gain of 2.1% followed closely by NSE 20 and NSE 10 with 1.5% and 0.6% respectively. The banking stocks recorded a 2.6% drop on average as measured by the banking index which lost 4.26 points to 161.61 points.
A reduction of 13.0% was noted in the market’s turnover with KES 1,516.13Mn being recorded on the week ending 16th October 2025. This followed a 12.6% decline in shares traded from 84.64Mn the week before to 74.01Mn shares.
Foreign participation thinned to 25.9% from that of 36.2% the week before with a slowdown in net foreign outflows from KES 85.26Mn to KES 63.23Mn.Heavy foreign exits happened on Safaricom with foreign inflows being recorded on KCB and Equity.
Sector-wise, market focus remained on the banking, telecommunication and the energy sectors which controlled 85.0% of the markets total turnover. Consequently the same sectors had the largest volume traded which accounted for 71.3% of the total volume traded this week.
Safaricom retained the top mover for the 3rd consecutive week with a turnover of KES 414.30Mn after changing hands 15.52Mn shares in the week. As such, the telco’s price improved by 3.1% from 27.10 to 27.95, coupled with an increase in volume traded made it unbeatable.
KCB Group held the second mover position of the week with a turnover of KES 224.78Mn while still recording a drop in volume traded from 3.93Mn last week to 9.01Mn.
Kenya Power took third mover position with KES 159.85Mn after changing hands 12.47Mn shares. The company recorded improved foreign participation of 19.3% while its price dropped for the second consecutive week on a low financial performance and returns against market expectations.
The banking sector produced week’s top two gainers led by NCBA at 20.7% gain from KES 69 to KES 83.25, and BK Group with 10.7% from KES 38.35 to KES 42.45 per share. Price surge on NCBA was occasioned by news on early discussions of its acquisition by the Standard Bank Group. If the acquisition offers goes through it will be among the largest transaction ever transacted in the market.
[Graph in PDF]
Bonds Market
Secondary bonds market registered a 1.8%decline week on week (w-w) from KES 30.758Bn to KES 30.21Bn with the number of deals having a significant decline of 18.6%.
This week’s decline resulted from primary auction for the re-opened FXD1/2018/015 (7.7 years) of 12.65% coupon and FXD1/2021/020 (15.9-years) of 13.444% coupon, which happened in the week.
This coming week is expected to go back to normalcy as investors recover from the previous auction week.
[Graph in PDF]
The primary auction that happened in the week, was oversubscribed at 237.9% or KES 118.89Bn while the government accepting KES 85.28Bn to account for 170.5% performance against a KES 50 billion target. The accepted rate was within our earlier conservative rates forecasted.
[Graph in PDF]
Yield Curve
The yield curve experienced mixed reactions in the week with a downward shift bias especially on the run papers whose auction happened the week before.
The short-end of the yield curve remained relatively stable on minimal activities in the section as the market remain starved of short-term issues. The middle curve around the re-opened FXD1/2018/015 (7.7-years) to the 11-year papers shifted down to a low of 205.8bps. The long end curve above 15-years to 22-years widened down faster on impact from the FXD1/2021/020 (15.9-years) re-opened in October 2025.
In the second last week of October 2025, we expect a further downward shift as investors who secured the primary papers cash in from the secondary market.
[Graph in PDF]
Interbank
The interbank rate further edged down in the week from 9.30% to 9.23% to track the Central Bank rate which was cut by 25.0bps from 9.50% to 9.25% in the second week of October. Average interbank dropped faster at 17.0bps from 9.41% to 9.24% to fully reflect the above rate cut impact.
Liquidity demand also fell by nearly half from KES 10.20Bn to KES 5.25Bn to pull down the average demand by 56.7% from KES 12.29BN to KES 5.32Bn. This was supported by improved liquidity in the market whose demand was offset by government payouts.
Bank excess reserves thinned from KES 13.80Bn to KES 3.80Bn after the above settlement of KES 85.28Bn primary bond value settlement on 20th October. The reserves were further drained by tax payments for value added tax (VAT), excise duty, with-holding tax and rental taxes which are all paid on 20th of every month.
[Graph in PDF]
Treasury Bills
T-Bills were oversubscribed at 114.7% or KES 27.54Bn while the government accepting a total of KES 27.30Bn to account for a 113.7% performance. The market focus shifted to the 364-day paper which was the only oversubscribed paper at 211.1% or KES 21.35Bn on its slightly better returns compared to the other two papers.
The performance was supported by rollover re-investments of KES 27.90Bn out of the KES 28.26Bn maturity payouts due on 20th October 2025. The interest rates across the three papers, further narrowed down minimally at 3.2bps, 2.1bps and 2.6bps to 7.8591%, to 7.9091% and to 9.3648% on the 91, 182, and the 364-day papers, respectively.
In the coming week, we expect oversubscriptions to remain occasioned by heavy maturities of KES 45.59Bn due on 27th October 2025. We however, expect the returns on investments to drop minimally at around 5.0bps and below.
[Graph in PDF]
Currency
The Kenya shilling remained strong in the week to trade at an average of KES 129.24 per US dollar. This was largely supported by stable and expanding forex reserves and reduced pressure on early external debt settlements.
Forex reserves hit an all-time high of USD 12,072Mn, sufficient for 5.3-months of import cover against a 4.0- month target. The exchange buffers remain cushioned by receipts from the recent Eurobond surplus, increased diaspora remittances and receipts from the tea and horticultural exports.
Diaspora remittances stabilized at USD 419.63Mn in September 2025, similar to USD 419.63Mn received in August 2025. Year on year, foreign remittances improved 0.3% against that of USD 418.50Mn received in September 2024.
