Equities Market
Equities recorded 4.7% rise in the last week of October 2025, as reflected by the Nairobi All Share Index (NASI), which attracted 8.48 points to 188.29 points. Large cap counters, NSE 10, had the highest gain of 5.8% majorly supported by Equity Group’s stellar financials for the third quarter of 2025 (Q3-2025). The NSE 25 rose 4.3%, followed by NSE 20, which rose by 2.5%. In overall however, banks lost 3.7% on average.
Weekly turnover sunk by 38.0% to KES 2,598.93Mn, largely attributed by a 18.2% drop in volume traded, from 134.37Mn the previous week to 109.87 shares.
Foreign participation dwindled to 26.9% from 44.3% the week before, accompanied by a reduction in net foreign outflows from KES 1,639.44Mn to KES 173.09Mn. Major foreign inflows happened on Equity Group and KCB Group while Safaricom and I&M Group attracted notable foreign outflows.
Market activity concentrated on the banking, telecommunication and the energy & petroleum sectors, which accounted for 91.0% and 69.8% of the markets total turnover and shares traded.
Safaricom maintained top mover position throughout October posting a turnover of KES 933.95Mn in the week from 31.63Mn shares. Its share price gained 6.9% from KES 28.30 to KES30.25 to solidify our BUY position on the telco.
Safaricom is expected to share its half-year earnings in the coming week on the 6th of November 2025.
Equity Group ranked second this week with a turnover of KES 422.15Mn with 6.51Mn shares changing hands in the week. Their improved financials for Q3-2025 led to a jump in their share price by 11.3% from KES 59.50 to KES66.25 attributable to its performance.
On its Performance, Equity Group reported KES 65.58Bn profits before tax (PBT) for the third quarter of 2025 (Q3-2025), representing a 28.5% year on year (y-y) jump compared to KES 51.02Bn announced by end of September 2024. We issue a BUY recommendation on the counter’s share price with a revised value of KES 73.32 per share, a 13.9% upside from the current price of KES 63.50 per share as of 30th October 2025.
KCB Group took third mover position with KES 232.12Mn after changing hands 3.87Mn shares.
The top gainers for the week were Total Energies with a 26.6% improvement in its price followed by a 16.8 % increase in Flame Tree’s counter price and Nairobi Securities share price moved from KES14.40 to KES 16.25 which was a 12.8% improvement.
[Graph in PDF]
Bonds Market
The secondary bonds market value traded dipped 30.4% from KES 54.50Bn to KES 37.96Bn accompanied by a drop in the number of deals. This was as investor focus shifted to the primary auction due in the coming week on 5th November 2025, FXD1/2012/020 (7-years to maturity, 12.000% coupon) and FXD1/2022/015 (11.4- years to maturity, 13.9240% coupon).
The FXD/2021/20Yr had the highest value traded at 6.67Bn despite its yield to maturity rising from 13.2850 last week to 13.3468% against 13.5285% accepted in the primary market.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) announced the reopening of two papers for the November primary auction, FXD1/2012/020 (7-year, 12.000% coupon) and FXD1/2022/015 (11.4-year, 13.942% coupon) and a Buyback Offer for FXD1/2023/003 (6.7 months, maturing May 11, 2026).
The primary auction for the two reopened papers for the November primary auction, FXD1/2012/020 (7-year, 12.000% coupon) and FXD1/2022/015 (11.4-year, 13.942% coupon) is set to take place this week on the 5th of November 2025.
[Graph in PDF]
Yield Curve
The yield curve shifted upwards on influence from the upcoming primary auction due on 5th November for FXD1/2012/020 (7-years to maturity, 12.000% coupon) and FXD1/2022/015 (11.4-years to maturity, 13.9240% coupon).
Wider upward shifts happened on between papers of 14-years and 21-years ranging between 57.5bps and 81.5bps except for the 16-year paper as demonstrated in the graph below. We view the influence to have been orchestrated by investors as they seek to influence the primary rates upwards for better discounts.
The short-end also shifted up led by the 7-year paper with a highest upward shift of 46.7bps supported by the ongoing sale of FXD1/2012/020 (7.0-year) paper due for auction on Wednesday, 5th October 2025.
[Graph in PDF]
Interbank
Interbank rate remained largely unchanged at average of 9.3% in the week on low liquidity demand. The average interbank rate recorded a marginal uptick of 0.01 bps, maintaining overall stability in short-term market rates.
Liquidity demand diminished by 68.0% to KES 3.86 billion, and average demand easing 41.29% to KES 9.24 Bn, indicating reduced short-term funding pressures in the market. The improved liquidity was supported by inflows from T-Bills of KES 45.59Bn and moderated borrowing needs among commercial banks.
Bank excess reserves rose 59.0% from KES 7.8 billion to KES 12.4 billion supported by the above low liquidity demand.
[Graph in PDF]
Treasury Bills
The weekly T-bills auction remained oversubscribed at 101.1%, receiving KES 24.25 billion in bids against a target of KES 24.0 billion, with KES 24.25 billion accepted.
Investor preference shifted sharply towards the 364-day paper, which was oversubscribed at 208.2% (KES 20.82 billion in bids, of which the entire amount was accepted). The 182-day and 91-day papers were undersubscribed, reflecting a tactical move toward long-term maturities.
Yields across all papers rose slightly by 0.01bps, 0.04bps, and 0.02bps to 7.8095%, 7.9000%, and 9.3404% for the 91-, 182-, and 364-day tenors, respectively.
The week’s performance was supported by KES 45.59billion in T-bill maturities, with a further KES 20.58Bn maturing next week, expected to sustain oversubscription levels through reinvestment.
[Graph in PDF]
Currency
The Kenyan shilling remained stable during the week, averaging KES 129.24 per US dollar. It was largely unchanged against the USD but strengthened 1.4%, 0.3%, and 1.1% against the British pound, euro, and Japanese yen, respectively.
Year-to-date, the shilling has appreciated slightly by 0.1% against the dollar. However, gains from rising foreign exchange reserves continue to be countered by high external debt obligation.
Forex reserves rose to a new high of USD 12.19 billion, equivalent to 5.3 months of import cover, well above the CBK’s 4.0-month minimum target. The reserves remain supported by Eurobond inflows, diaspora remittances, and agricultural export receipts.
Diaspora remittances stabilized at USD 419.63Mn in September 2025, similar to USD 419.63Mn received in August 2025. Year on year, foreign remittances improved 0.3% against that of USD 418.50Mn received in September 2024.
